Report Description Table of Contents Introduction And Strategic Context The Global Commercial Fishing Market is projected to reach USD 330.4 billion in 2024 , expanding to about USD 432.6 billion by 2030 , reflecting a CAGR of 4.6% during the forecast period (2024–2030), accordin g to Strategic Market Research. Commercial fishing remains one of the oldest yet most strategically relevant industries. Beyond being a food source, it underpins global trade, rural employment, coastal economies, and increasingly, sustainability debates. Unlike subsistence or recreational fishing, commercial operations involve large-scale trawling, aquaculture integration, and sophisticated supply chains that span harvesting, processing, and global distribution. The strategic importance of this market in the 2024–2030 period rests on three converging forces. First, global seafood demand is rising , driven by shifting dietary preferences toward protein-rich and omega-3–based foods. Second, regulatory pressure is tightening — quotas, sustainability certifications, and traceability requirements are now shaping where and how fleets operate. Third, technological innovation is accelerating, with advanced sonar systems, AI-based fish stock monitoring, and eco-friendly vessel designs entering mainstream adoption. Stakeholders in this market are diverse. Fleet operators and vessel owners remain at the core, supported by fishing gear manufacturers, aquaculture firms, cold storage operators, and global distributors . Governments play a dual role: as regulators controlling quotas and as facilitators of modernization programs, particularly in emerging economies. Investors, too, are watching closely — not just for volume growth but also for the sustainability premium attached to certified seafood. What makes this market different from many other food sectors is the direct link between resource sustainability and economic viability . Overfishing, climate change, and illegal fishing practices continue to threaten stability. Yet, as new policies push for sustainable harvests and traceable supply chains, opportunities emerge for those willing to align business with conservation. In short, commercial fishing is no longer just about catching fish. It’s about balancing rising global protein demand with environmental stewardship, technology-driven efficiency, and evolving trade dynamics. The winners of this decade will be those who adapt fastest to these intersecting pressures. Market Segmentation And Forecast Scope The commercial fishing market isn’t a monolith. It cuts across multiple layers — from the way seafood is sourced, to how it’s processed and ultimately distributed. Understanding these segments is key to grasping where the market is headed and which areas are attracting the most strategic attention. By Fishing Type Wild Capture Fishing: This is still the dominant segment, accounting for an estimated 64% of total market revenue in 2024 . It includes ocean-based and inland capture using trawlers, longlines, and purse seines. However, it’s also the segment facing the most scrutiny due to overfishing and climate-induced changes to marine ecosystems. Aquaculture (Fish Farming): Aquaculture is growing at a faster clip — with demand for farmed salmon, tilapia, and shrimp driving expansion. This sub-segment is increasingly viewed as a scalable solution to seafood supply gaps. Operators are investing in RAS (Recirculating Aquaculture Systems), offshore cages, and AI-based feeding systems to improve yield and reduce environmental impact. Expect aquaculture to account for more than 42% of total production volume by 2030, up from just under 35% a decade ago. By Species Category Finfish (e.g., tuna, cod, salmon): The largest revenue generator, especially in North America, Europe, and Japan. Tuna, in particular, remains a top export product for countries like Thailand and Ecuador. Crustaceans (e.g., shrimp, crab, lobster): High in value but more volatile due to seasonality and disease outbreaks in farmed shrimp populations. Mollusks (e.g., squid, octopus, clams): Increasingly in demand in East Asia and parts of Southern Europe. There’s rising interest in sustainable mollusk farming, which requires lower input costs and has a smaller carbon footprint. By Equipment/Method Used Trawling and Dredging: Still prevalent but facing mounting pressure due to bycatch and habitat disruption concerns. Longline and Gillnet Fishing: Favored in deep-sea operations, especially in tuna and swordfish capture. Purse Seining and Trap Fishing: Popular for pelagic fish like sardines, anchovies, and mackerel. Considered more selective and sustainable than other methods. Aquaculture Systems: Includes both open-net pens and land-based tank farms. Innovations in biofiltration , feed optimization, and genetic selection are driving this segment. By End Product Fresh and Frozen Seafood: The most common output, particularly in urban and export markets. Quality preservation through cold chain infrastructure is critical here. Canned and Processed Fish: Important in value-added supply chains, especially for sardines, tuna, and mackerel. Latin America and Southeast Asia are major processing hubs. Fish Oil and Fishmeal: Typically derived from anchovy and menhaden species. Demand is growing in animal feed, nutraceuticals, and aquafeed applications. By Region The market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa . Each re gion shows distinct production strengths, regulatory intensity, and export-import dependencies — which we’ll cover in detail in Section 5. Scope Note: This segmentation isn’t just a taxonomy exercise. It reflects shifting market priorities — from sustainability-certified tuna in North America to aquaculture-led shrimp production in Asia. As regulations, consumer preferences, and climate impacts evolve, some of these categories may converge, while others split into more specialized niches. Market Trends And Innovation Landscape The commercial fishing industry is in the middle of a quiet transformation. While it still conjures images of nets and trawlers, today’s growth drivers are increasingly digital, data-driven, and sustainability-focused. The old model — maximize catch, minimize cost — is giving way to something far more nuanced. Here’s what’s shaping the industry between now and 2030. Tech-Driven Precision Fishing is Gaining Traction Forget guesswork. Large fleet operators are now integrating AI-based fish-finding systems , satellite imaging, and sonar mapping to locate high-density stocks in real time. These systems reduce fuel waste and minimize unintended bycatch — which matters a lot when regulations are tightening. Some systems are even combining ocean temperature and salinity data to predict migration patterns. One Norwegian fleet saw a 12% increase in catch efficiency after integrating predictive analytics into their navigation systems. Aquaculture Innovation is Accelerating As wild catch volumes plateau due to quotas and ecological limits, aquaculture is stepping up. But this isn’t just about more ponds and cages. Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS) are now being installed near urban centers to grow species like salmon and tilapia with zero water discharge. Sensor-driven feeding platforms are cutting feed waste by up to 30%. Selective breeding and genetic tracing are helping farm operators boost yield while meeting food safety and traceability standards. RAS-based farms in Singapore and the UAE are already demonstrating urban seafood production models that could redefine how future markets are supplied. Sustainability is No Longer Optional — It's Commercial Retail giants and food service chains now demand certification and traceability . Programs like Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) are fast becoming table stakes for exporters. Blockchain -based seafood traceability tools are also scaling. These systems log every step — from net to dock to supermarket — and are being mandated by regulators in the EU and U.S. For exporters, failing to comply increasingly means losing access to high-margin markets. Post-Harvest Innovation is Closing the Waste Gap Roughly 30% of seafood is lost post-catch due to spoilage, inefficient logistics, or processing gaps. That’s changing. Smart cold chains with IoT -enabled temperature monitoring are being adopted by mid-sized fleets. Mobile on-board processing units are reducing waste for high-value species like tuna and snapper. Solar-powered freezers are being deployed at small port facilities in West Africa and South Asia to reduce spoilage and boost income for artisanal fishers. Carbon Footprint and Climate Risk Enter the C-Suite With growing scrutiny on emissions and ocean health, large operators are exploring hybrid or electric fishing vessels , especially for nearshore operations. Also gaining ground: dynamic ocean management platforms — digital tools that reroute fleets based on seasonal fish stock migration and marine biodiversity zones. A few fleets in the Pacific have already partnered with marine NGOs to co-develop shared databases to prevent encroachment on marine protected areas. Bottom line: innovation in commercial fishing isn’t just about catching more. It’s about catching smarter, cleaner, and with full traceability. The tech is here. The market signals are clear. The only question is how fast operators adapt. Competitive Intelligence And Benchmarking The commercial fishing market isn’t defined by a single global leader. Instead, it’s a layered landscape of vertically integrated conglomerates, regional champions, and highly specialized aquaculture players. Each is adapting to shifting dynamics in regulation, technology, and sustainability — but with very different strategies. Here’s how the key players are positioning themselves: Thai Union Group One of the world’s largest seafood producers, Thai Union has built its dominance through an aggressive mix of M&A, brand ownership (like Chicken of the Sea), and a growing sustainability play. They’ve committed to full traceability across all tuna sourcing by 2025 and are investing in blockchain -backed transparency tools . Their integrated model — from catch to canning to distribution — gives them margin control and retail access, particularly in North America and Europe. Sustainability is no longer a CSR effort here; it’s a competitive differentiator tied to customer contracts. Mowi ASA Formerly known as Marine Harvest, Mowi is the global king of farmed salmon. Based in Norway, the company has pioneered closed-loop aquaculture systems , hybrid feeds, and offshore cage farming. Their competitive edge lies in vertical integration and R&D — they even operate proprietary fish genetics and vaccine units. They’ve also leaned hard into ESG. Mowi’s salmon is among the most sustainability-certified in the world, opening premium retail and restaurant channels. Nippon Suisan Kaisha ( Nissui ) Japan-based Nissui combines deep-sea fishing with processing and distribution. They’re investing in automated freezing technologies, onboard grading systems, and regional sourcing networks — especially in Southeast Asia. The company is now piloting AI-based vessel navigation and sonar optimization tools to improve efficiency across its global fleet. Nissui is also diversifying into fish-based nutraceuticals, including omega-3 oils and protein isolates. Maruha Nichiro Corporation Another Japanese heavyweight, Maruha Nichiro is doubling down on food processing and health-focused marine products. Their strategy is clear: shift from commodity fishing to functional seafood products for aging populations. They’ve formed R&D partnerships with biotech firms to explore marine-derived peptides and collagen. In wild-capture, they’re investing in electric trawlers and low-bycatch techniques. High Liner Foods A Canadian leader in frozen and value-added seafood, High Liner isn’t a fleet operator — it’s a processor. But that’s where its strength lies. They serve retail and food service segments with prepared products like breaded fish fillets, using a network of certified suppliers. They’re also expanding private-label business in the U.S. and leveraging sustainability labeling to gain shelf space in national chains. Cermaq Group (Mitsubishi Corporation) Owned by Mitsubishi , Cermaq is a fast-scaling aquaculture player focused on salmon farming in Norway, Chile, and Canada. They’re pushing the envelope in AI-based feeding, sea lice control , and satellite -monitoring of water conditions. Their strategy is to balance biological innovation with social license — especially in indigenous territories in Canada and Latin America. Cermaq is betting that social acceptance and ecological transparency will define future farm site approvals. Competitive Themes at a Glance: Sustainability = Access : Companies leading in traceability and certification are locking in high-value contracts, especially in the EU and U.S. Aquaculture Players Are R&D Heavyweights : Genetics, feed innovation, and biosecurity investments are giving salmon and shrimp giants a clear edge. Vertical Integration is a Power Lever : From breeding to branding, firms like Mowi and Thai Union are proving that owning more of the value chain boosts resilience. Fleet Modernization is Spotty : While tech adoption is high in Japan and Norway, mid-tier operators in Latin America and Africa lag behind — opening space for regional disruptors. To be honest, this market isn’t a race to the bottom. It’s a climb to credibility — and the players who treat sustainability as core strategy, not compliance, are already winning. Regional Landscape And Adoption Outlook Commercial fishing is deeply regional. Geography shapes everything — from species mix and catch volumes to regulatory intensity, fleet modernization, and export strategy. Some countries are tech-forward and sustainability-driven. Others are still battling infrastructure gaps and overfishing. Let’s break down the market by region. Asia Pacific This region dominates by volume — accounting for well over 60% of global seafood production in 2024 — driven largely by China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. China leads both in wild catch and aquaculture, thanks to massive inland fish farms and an industrial-scale fleet operating across the globe. India is scaling up shrimp aquaculture in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat, buoyed by rising exports to the U.S. and EU. Indonesia is digitizing its port infrastructure and rolling out vessel monitoring systems to tackle IUU (illegal, unreported, unregulated) fishing. But the story here isn’t just scale — it’s transformation. Governments are offering subsidies for cold chain storage, enforcing traceability norms, and pushing for eco-certification to access premium export markets . The biggest challenge? Infrastructure gaps and fragmented regulation at local levels, especially in Southeast Asia and South Asia’s coastal districts. Europe Europe is where sustainability and regulation intersect. The EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) sets strict quotas and enforces eco-labeled sourcing, particularly for North Atlantic stocks. Norway , although outside the EU, is a global force — especially in high-tech salmon farming and ocean management. Spain and Portugal are key fishing nations with growing offshore fleets and deep-sea fishing licenses in African waters. Iceland has become a poster child for quota-based sustainability, with near real-time stock monitoring systems. European players are also leading the value-added seafood game — exporting canned, smoked, and frozen seafood to global markets. However, aging fleets in parts of Eastern Europe are overdue for modernization. This could create space for new entrants or private equity-backed rollups. North America The U.S. and Canada approach commercial fishing through a high-regulation, high-compliance lens. Alaska continues to dominate U.S. catch volumes, especially for wild salmon and pollock . New England and Canada’s Atlantic provinces focus on lobster, scallops, and cod — often with MSC certification. The big push now? Domestic aquaculture expansion , particularly in offshore salmon farms and inland RAS operations. Several U.S. startups are raising capital for tank-based fish farming within trucking distance of major urban centers. Also notable is the focus on traceability tech , mandated by the FDA’s Seafood Import Monitoring Program (SIMP). Compliance is no longer optional — it’s a requirement for market access. Latin America This region is rich in marine biodiversity but uneven in regulatory enforcement. Chile and Peru are major global exporters — salmon and anchoveta , respectively — with advanced processing infrastructure. Ecuador has carved out a role as a top shrimp exporter, largely thanks to vertically integrated farms and feed innovation. Yet many parts of Central America and the Caribbean still rely on small-scale, often informal fishing. Infrastructure gaps and limited access to sustainability programs keep them locked out of higher-value export chains. That said, multilateral programs (e.g., IDB, FAO) are stepping in to modernize port and cold chain infrastructure — creating real momentum over the next 5 years. Middle East and Africa (MEA) A fragmented but fast-developing region. Egypt and Nigeria are scaling freshwater aquaculture to reduce seafood imports. Morocco and Mauritania have become important partners for EU-based fleets operating under license. In the Gulf , countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing heavily in offshore aquaculture, part of a larger food security agenda. In sub-Saharan Africa, most fishing remains artisanal, with minimal cold chain access. But mobile tech, solar-powered storage, and micro-finance models are starting to change that. Regional Outlook Summary Asia Pacific : High volume, high fragmentation. Huge upside if infrastructure gaps close. Europe : Regulation-heavy but export-savvy. Quotas and ESG drive innovation. North America : Compliance-first, now shifting toward high-tech aquaculture. Latin America : Strong export markets, mixed enforcement. Poised for modernization. MEA : Early -stage but policy-driven growth, especially in aquaculture. To succeed globally, seafood players must master regional nuance. What works in Norway won’t work in Nigeria — and what scales in India may be illegal in Spain. End-User Dynamics And Use Case In the commercial fishing ecosystem, end users are not just seafood consumers. They include processors, retailers, food service providers, aquafeed manufacturers, and even governments. Each group has different needs — whether it’s consistency, certification, traceability, or shelf-life extension. Let’s look at how these dynamics are playing out. Seafood Processors These are the primary buyers of raw catch — converting fish into packaged fillets, canned goods, or frozen meals. What they want: Stable supply with predictable species and quality Compliance with food safety and sustainability standards Integrated logistics with cold chain compatibility Processors increasingly favor fleets and aquaculture farms with real-time harvest tracking, catch certificates, and batch-level traceability. This isn’t just for compliance — it reduces risk and speeds up international distribution. Retail Chains and Distributors Supermarkets, restaurant suppliers, and wholesalers are now the gatekeepers to the consumer. They demand seafood that’s: Certified (MSC, ASC, or GlobalG.A.P .) Traceable to source Ethically and legally sourced Large chains like Carrefour, Walmart, and Costco have pledged to stock only sustainable seafood. That means fleet operators and farms must build these expectations into their harvest strategy — or risk losing shelf space. Food Service Providers Hotels, quick-service restaurants, and airline catering services value seafood that is: Pre-portioned and pre-cooked (value-added) Long shelf life with frozen or chilled storage Customizable for regional menus (e.g., shrimp for Asia, cod for Europe) Operators with consistent quality and high food safety ratings are preferred. Some large hotel groups now require full supplier audits , including environmental and labor checks. Aquafeed Manufacturers A more upstream end-user group. These companies convert lower-value fish (like anchoveta ) into meal and oil for aquaculture and livestock feed. Their concern is volume, not flavor. They need massive, low-cost, reliable biomass — but face scrutiny for overharvesting forage fish . This has led to interest in alternatives like algae-based omega-3 and insect protein. Public Sector and Aid Organizations Governments and NGOs also act as buyers — especially in regions focused on food security and poverty reduction. They procure fresh and frozen fish for school meal programs, food aid distribution, or disaster response. Here, cost and shelf stability trump branding — but sustainability and nutritional quality are rising priorities. Use Case: Aquaculture and Traceable Retail in South Korea A vertically integrated salmon farm in South Korea recently upgraded its operations to meet rising demand from premium grocery retailers. They installed IoT sensors across grow-out cages , added AI-powered feeding systems , and integrated blockchain traceability — linking each harvested fish to a QR code on the package. The result? Shrinkage dropped 18% Time-to-market reduced by 5 days Retailers increased shelf presence due to verified sustainability claims Consumers responded positively, with premium salmon sales rising 21% over six months This shift wasn’t just operational — it was strategic. By meeting retailer and consumer expectations upstream, the farm secured loyalty and margin growth downstream. Bottom line: Commercial fishing end users aren’t just buying seafood. They’re buying reliability, responsibility, and readiness to comply with the next big regulation. Whoever delivers that at scale will own the future market. Recent Developments + Opportunities & Restraints Recent Developments (Past 2 Years) Mowi Opens AI-Powered Salmon RAS Facility in the U.S. (2024): Mowi commissioned a large-scale recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) facility in Maine, integrating machine vision for fish health monitoring and real-time feed optimization. The move marks its push into near-market production for U.S. consumers. Thai Union Launches End-to-End Blockchain Seafood Traceability (2023): Thai Union expanded its blockchain program to cover 100% of its tuna supply chain. Every product in its “ SeaChange ” platform can now be traced from catch to shelf, aiming to boost trust with retailers in the EU and North America. EU Passes New IUU Fishing Rules Tied to Digital Catch Documentation (2024): The European Commission approved enhanced digital documentation requirements for all seafood imports. Exporters must now provide electronic catch certificates, verified via third-party platforms. Cermaq Tests AI and Drone Surveillance in Chilean Salmon Farms (2023): To improve biosecurity and reduce human labor risks, Cermaq Chile began piloting drone-based visual inspection and AI-driven behavioral monitoring in offshore pens. Peru Invests in Post-Harvest Cold Chain for Artisanal Fishing (2024): Backed by the Inter-American Development Bank, Peru launched a national cold chain infrastructure program focused on artisanal fishing villages, targeting a 20% reduction in spoilage losses. Opportunities Digital Traceability Opens Premium Export Channels: As regulators and buyers in the EU, U.S., and Japan demand digital catch records, producers who embrace blockchain , RFID, or cloud-based logging systems will gain faster customs clearance and better margins. This is particularly advantageous for small and mid-sized exporters trying to leapfrog traditional paper-based systems. Urban Aquaculture and RAS Facilities in Land-Constrained Nations: In regions with limited coastline or high import dependency — like Singapore, UAE, or parts of Africa — inland RAS is emerging as a strategic asset. Government subsidies and food security concerns are fueling this trend. Sustainable Byproduct Commercialization: Fish heads, bones, and trimmings — previously discarded — are now being processed into collagen, pet food, or fertilizer. This waste-to-value shift is attracting ESG-focused investors and opening circular economy opportunities. Restraints High Capital Requirements for Modernization: Whether it’s electric trawlers, AI systems, or traceability infrastructure, upfront investment is steep. This creates a divide between large, vertically integrated players and fragmented, under-capitalized fleets. Overfishing and Regulatory Volatility: Quotas are tightening in the North Atlantic, West Africa, and parts of Asia. Inconsistent enforcement and abrupt policy changes — especially in emerging markets — can disrupt sourcing and create uncertainty for exporters. 7.1. Report Coverage Table Report Attribute Details Forecast Period 2024 – 2030 Market Size Value in 2024 USD 330.4 Billion Revenue Forecast in 2030 USD 432.6 Billion Overall Growth Rate CAGR of 4.6% (2024 – 2030) Base Year for Estimation 2024 Historical Data 2019 – 2023 Unit USD Million, CAGR (2024 – 2030) Segmentation By Fishing Type, Species, Equipment, End Product, Region By Fishing Type Wild Capture, Aquaculture By Species Finfish, Crustaceans, Mollusks By Equipment Trawling, Longline, Purse Seine, Aquaculture Systems By End Product Fresh/Frozen, Canned, Fish Oil/Fishmeal By Region North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa Country Scope U.S., Canada, Norway, Japan, China, India, Chile, Peru, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. Market Drivers - Rising global seafood demand - Aquaculture innovation - Digital traceability & regulatory pressure Customization Option Available upon request Frequently Asked Question About This Report Q1: How big is the commercial fishing market? A1: The global commercial fishing market is valued at USD 330.4 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 432.6 billion by 2030. Q2: What is the CAGR for the commercial fishing market during the forecast period? A2: The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030. Q3: Who are the major players in the commercial fishing market? A3: Leading players include Thai Union Group, Mowi ASA, Maruha Nichiro, Nissui, Cermaq Group, and High Liner Foods. Q4: Which region leads the commercial fishing market? A4: Asia Pacific leads by volume, while Europe and North America dominate in regulatory sophistication and traceable exports. Q5: What factors are driving the growth of the commercial fishing market? A5: Growth is fueled by rising seafood demand, aquaculture innovation, and the push for traceable, sustainable sourcing. Table of Contents - Global Commercial Fishing Market Report (2024–2030) Executive Summary Market Overview Market Attractiveness by Fishing Type, Species, Equipment, End Product, and Region Strategic Insights from Key Executives (CXO Perspective) Historical Market Size and Future Projections (2019–2030) Summary of Market Segmentation by Fishing Type, Species, Equipment, End Product, and Region Market Share Analysis Leading Players by Revenue and Market Share Market Share Analysis by Fishing Type and End Product Market Share by Region and Export Volume Investment Opportunities in the Commercial Fishing Market Key Developments and Innovations Mergers, Acquisitions, and Strategic Partnerships High-Growth Segments for Investment (e.g., Aquaculture Systems, RAS Facilities, Sustainable Packaging) Market Introduction Definition and Scope of the Study Market Structure and Key Findings Overview of Top Investment Pockets and Trade Corridors Research Methodology Research Process Overview Primary and Secondary Research Approaches Market Size Estimation and Forecasting Techniques Market Dynamics Key Market Drivers Challenges and Restraints Impacting Growth Emerging Opportunities for Stakeholders Impact of Sustainability Regulations and Trade Compliance Global Commercial Fishing Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Fishing Type Wild Capture Aquaculture Market Analysis by Species Finfish Crustaceans Mollusks Market Analysis by Equipment Trawling Longline Purse Seine Aquaculture Systems Market Analysis by End Product Fresh/Frozen Canned Fish Oil/Fishmeal Market Analysis by Region North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa Regional Market Analysis North America Commercial Fishing Market U.S. Canada Mexico Europe Commercial Fishing Market Norway Spain U.K. Germany Rest of Europe Asia-Pacific Commercial Fishing Market China India Indonesia Japan Vietnam Rest of Asia-Pacific Latin America Commercial Fishing Market Chile Peru Ecuador Rest of Latin America Middle East & Africa Commercial Fishing Market GCC Countries Egypt Nigeria South Africa Rest of MEA Key Players and Competitive Analysis Thai Union Group Mowi ASA Maruha Nichiro Nippon Suisan Kaisha (Nissui) Cermaq Group High Liner Foods Appendix Abbreviations and Terminologies Used in the Report References and Data Sources List of Tables Market Size by Fishing Type, Species, Equipment, End Product, and Region (2024–2030) Regional Market Breakdown by Segment Type (2024–2030) List of Figures Market Drivers, Challenges, and Opportunities Regional Market Snapshot Competitive Landscape by Market Share Growth Strategies Adopted by Key Players Market Share by End Product (2024 vs. 2030)