Report Description Table of Contents Introduction And Strategic Context The Global Lactose And Derivatives Market will witness a steady CAGR of 5.8% , valued at USD 7.9 billion in 2024 , and forecasted to cross USD 11.1 billion by 2030 , confirms Strategic Market Research. Lactose is more than just the sugar in milk — it's the backbone of a thriving global derivatives industry. Its downstream compounds, including lactulose, galactooligosaccharides (GOS), lactitol, and pharmaceutical-grade lactose, have moved beyond traditional food applications into high-growth spaces like infant nutrition, drug formulation, and gut health. What used to be a commodity sugar is now an ingredient of strategic importance across food, pharma, and functional health sectors. Several converging forces are reshaping this market. For one, global dairy production continues to rise, with improved whey fractionation and ultrafiltration technologies making lactose extraction more efficient than ever. At the same time, consumer dietary shifts are pulling the market in two directions — while demand for lactose-free products increases in developed economies, lactose derivatives are still finding new use cases in emerging markets. Pharmaceutical and nutraceutical applications are especially strong drivers. Lactose is widely used as a carrier and filler in tablets, particularly in dry powder inhalers and controlled-release drug delivery systems. In parallel, prebiotic GOS is gaining traction in gut microbiome-focused supplements and infant formula, especially in Asia. Regulatory momentum is playing a subtle but critical role. As infant nutrition standards tighten globally, Europe’s EFSA and China’s SAMR are pushing for stricter formulation controls — often favoring high-purity lactose and safe, functional derivatives. This trend is prompting OEMs and ingredient suppliers to upgrade quality and traceability across the value chain. Stakeholders in this market form a complex map: dairy cooperatives, pharma excipient manufacturers, infant formula brands, food processors, and prebiotic-focused startups . Global ingredient players are consolidating supply chains, building localized production hubs, and expanding product portfolios through acquisitions and specialty formulation partnerships. Here’s the broader takeaway — this market isn’t just about sugar anymore. It’s about functional performance, digestive health, and formulation science. As downstream applications diversify and regulatory quality expectations rise, lactose is moving from commodity status into the realm of strategic formulation asset. Market Segmentation And Forecast Scope The lactose and derivatives market is shaped by both raw material sourcing and final product function — which means segmentation has to reflect how end-users actually engage with these ingredients. Broadly, the market breaks down across product type, application, end user, and geography. Each layer of segmentation reveals where innovation is concentrated and where commercial value is shifting. By Product Type This is the most visible axis of differentiation. At the base is crystalline lactose — used heavily in food processing and pharmaceuticals. But the real growth lies in value-added derivatives like: Lactulose – A synthetic sugar used to treat constipation and liver conditions. Galactooligosaccharides (GOS) – A prebiotic used in infant formula and digestive health products. Lactitol – A sugar alcohol used in diabetic-friendly foods and laxatives. Pharmaceutical-grade lactose – Highly purified and optimized for drug formulation. Spray-dried lactose – Used in tablets and inhalers due to flow properties. Among these, GOS is expected to grow the fastest through 2030, driven by infant nutrition reformulations in Asia and Europe. By Application The market cuts across four core sectors: Food & Beverage Includes dairy, bakery, confectionery, and beverages Lactose serves as a filler, browning agent, and flavor modulator Pharmaceuticals Lactose is critical as a binder and carrier in tablets, capsules, and inhalable drugs Infant Nutrition Both lactose and GOS are key ingredients in milk powder and formula blends Animal Feed Used in calf starters and piglet feed to enhance digestion and nutrient absorption Pharma and infant nutrition together account for over 40% of global revenue in 2024 , reflecting high-margin applications and strict purity requirements. By End User This lens focuses on who’s actually using lactose-based inputs: Food & Beverage Manufacturers Seek bulk quantities at competitive cost; function-focused Pharmaceutical Companies Demand pharmaceutical-grade lactose for consistent formulation performance Nutraceutical Brands Use derivatives like GOS in prebiotic blends or gut health supplements Animal Nutrition Firms Rely on low-lactose whey permeates or blends for early-stage livestock feeding Interestingly, nutraceutical firms are emerging as a stealth growth driver , especially in China, South Korea, and parts of Europe where gut health is now a mass-market wellness concern. By Region The market shows clear regional divergence: North America : Dominated by pharmaceutical lactose and clean-label food trends Europe : Strong in infant nutrition, pharma, and lactose-free innovation Asia Pacific : Fastest-growing, driven by dairy consumption, rising pharma manufacturing, and premiumization of infant nutrition Latin America, Middle East & Africa (LAMEA) : Early-stage markets for lactose derivatives, though animal feed and food sectors are expanding steadily Scope Note : This market isn’t just segmented by product — it’s functionally siloed. What works in inhalable drug carriers doesn’t work in milk chocolate or piglet feed. That’s why suppliers are moving toward application-specific lactose platforms, customizing particle size, solubility, and purity to suit niche demands across pharma and nutrition. Market Trends And Innovation Landscape What’s happening in the lactose and derivatives market right now? A lot — and not in the ways most expect. Behind the scenes, this sector is undergoing a quiet transformation, driven by advanced purification technologies , regulatory precision , and bioactive formulation needs . In short, it's becoming less about volume and more about value. Purity Is the New Battleground In pharma and infant nutrition, purity standards are tightening fast . Manufacturers are investing in: High-performance chromatography Membrane filtration Spray-drying controls These processes ensure consistent particle size, low endotoxin levels, and ultra-low moisture — all critical for dry powder inhalers, enteral nutrition, and preterm infant formulas . One technical director at a German pharma excipient firm noted, “If your lactose has even slight batch variability, you’re out of spec. Precision isn’t optional anymore.” This shift is especially intense in Europe and Japan, where formulators demand tight physicochemical tolerances . Prebiotics Are the Fastest-Moving Derivative Interest in galactooligosaccharides (GOS) is spiking, particularly in: Infant formula (China, Korea, Europe) Adult gut health products (U.S., Germany) Functional beverages and supplements Why? GOS selectively feeds beneficial gut bacteria, mimicking the effect of human milk oligosaccharides. It’s seen as a digestive enhancer and immune modulator — and regulators in China and the EU are encouraging inclusion in early-life nutrition. Several ingredient firms are now patenting enzymatic synthesis methods that yield high-GOS concentrations with lower lactose waste — a game-changer for both cost and yield. Pharmaceutical Innovation Is Quiet But Critical While less visible, lactose remains the workhorse excipient in drug formulation. The real innovation lies in micronized lactose grades for: Dry powder inhalers (DPI) for asthma and COPD Modified-release oral tablets Combination therapy carriers Emerging processing methods like direct compression and hot melt extrusion are putting new pressure on lactose suppliers to engineer grades that don’t just meet specs — they enable drug delivery . Several major excipient firms are now collaborating with CDMOs and inhaler device makers to co-develop lactose carriers that improve bioavailability and shelf life. Lactose-Free ≠ Derivative-Free Here’s a twist: even as lactose-free products gain momentum, lactose derivatives like lactitol and lactulose are growing — especially in diabetic food, oral care, and gastrointestinal therapy. That’s because these derivatives are non-digestible, low glycemic , and often serve a functional purpose beyond sweetness. So, while “free-from” dominates the food marketing narrative, formulation scientists see these compounds as tools — not threats. Localized Production Is Picking Up To reduce risk and meet regional regulatory needs, suppliers are building localized derivative manufacturing hubs — especially in: India (for pharma lactose) China (for GOS and infant-grade lactose) Eastern Europe (to serve EU and Middle East) This decentralization is creating new capacity for customization — such as heat-stable lactose blends or high-solubility powders for tropical markets. Bottom line : This market is quietly evolving into a tech-enabled formulation platform. Whether you’re designing a probiotic gummy, a COPD inhaler, or a neonatal formula — the lactose you use isn’t just filler. It’s engineered, purpose-built, and increasingly patent-protected. Competitive Intelligence And Benchmarking The lactose and derivatives market might seem like a commodity play from the outside, but the competitive dynamics tell a different story. It’s not just about who can supply the most — it’s about who can meet exacting standards across pharma, nutrition, and functional wellness. And that’s where strategy gets interesting. Key Players at a Glance Here’s a look at how the top companies are positioning themselves across the lactose value chain: Kerry Group Kerry isn’t just a flavor house — they’re a serious player in nutritional ingredients, especially high-purity lactose for infant formula and nutritional beverages. The company has invested in ultrafiltration and controlled crystallization technologies, enabling tailored lactose profiles for sensitive use cases. Kerry is also active in GOS development, targeting both Asia and the EU for prebiotic expansion. Their competitive edge? Integration across dairy sourcing, processing, and specialty formulation services. DFE Pharma A joint venture between FrieslandCampina and Fonterra, DFE is arguably the gold standard in pharmaceutical-grade lactose. Their lactose excipients are used in everything from tablets to inhalers, with a focus on particle uniformity and consistent flow properties. They’ve built a reputation around compliance with ICH Q7 and other global standards, making them a trusted partner for Big Pharma and CDMOs alike. They’re not selling ingredients — they’re selling regulatory confidence. Armor Pharma ( Savencia Group) Armor Pharma has carved out a niche in high-purity lactose for oral solid dosage forms and infant applications. What sets them apart is their batch traceability system and custom particle engineering capabilities. Their modular production setup allows for quick response to client-specific specs — a critical edge in pharma where delay = lost revenue. Meggle Group A legacy player, Meggle has long served both the food and pharma markets. But their recent push has been toward micronized lactose for dry powder inhalers and low-endotoxin grades for biologics. They’ve also expanded their plant footprint in Eastern Europe, allowing them to serve both EU and Middle East pharma hubs efficiently. Their strength? Scale with flexibility — a rare combo in this niche. Ingredia (France) Less visible than the big names, Ingredia focuses on functional lactose derivatives like lactulose and lactitol, targeting gut health and low-sugar applications. Their R&D team collaborates with European universities to explore novel prebiotic formulations and shelf-stable liquid blends. They’re not trying to dominate every segment — just the next one. Competitive Dynamics in 2024–2030 Specialization beats scale. The fastest-growing players are those doubling down on high-margin, application-specific derivatives — not bulk lactose. Regulatory readiness is a moat. Companies that pre-qualify their facilities with FDA, EMA, and PMDA certifications are winning long-term pharma contracts. Asia is the new battleground. With China ramping up infant nutrition standards and India scaling up pharma, companies with regional production or partnerships are ahead of the curve. Joint ventures and CDMO collaborations are surging. Expect more formulation-first lactose products co-developed with device makers or supplement brands. To be blunt, this isn’t a crowded market — it’s a layered one. At the bottom are bulk producers chasing volume. At the top are formulation partners who can deliver exact particle sizes, flow profiles, and regulatory docs without missing a beat. And that’s where the real money is moving. Regional Landscape And Adoption Outlook The global lactose and derivatives market doesn’t move in sync across regions. What’s driving growth in one geography may be holding others back. Some countries treat lactose as a strategic input in pharmaceuticals or infant care. Others still view it as a surplus product from dairy. The result is a fragmented but dynamic adoption map — with Asia Pacific accelerating fastest, while Europe and North America set the quality bar. North America North America is a mature market, but it’s not flat. What’s driving momentum here is pharmaceutical demand and clean-label food innovation. Lactose remains a staple in solid oral dosage forms, and there’s steady investment in: Inhaler-grade lactose with strict particle control Low-allergen, non-GMO lactose for food and infant use GOS and lactitol in gut-health supplements and diabetic foods The U.S. regulatory environment — led by FDA quality frameworks for excipients — ensures that suppliers must meet high GMP and documentation standards. That’s pushed companies to invest in technical service and regulatory support teams, not just logistics. Interestingly, the rise of plant-based trends hasn’t killed lactose — it’s redirected its path into more technical and therapeutic uses. Europe Europe remains the center of quality and compliance. The European Pharmacopoeia sets the benchmark for pharmaceutical lactose specifications. Meanwhile, EFSA’s oversight of infant nutrition and prebiotic use has driven tight controls on purity, endotoxins, and origin traceability. Countries like Germany, France, and the Netherlands are home to major lactose processors and excipient manufacturers. Many of these firms are also supplying to the Middle East and North Africa from European plants. The market here is also seeing growing interest in: Low-sugar confectionery and diabetic food (driving demand for lactitol) Prebiotic GOS in both baby and senior nutrition Custom lactose blends for emerging functional foods To be honest, Europe isn’t growing fast in volume — but it’s scaling in sophistication. Asia Pacific This is the fastest-growing region, no contest. China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are driving demand for: Infant formula lactose (as middle-class spending rises) Pharma-grade excipients (especially for India’s booming generic drug sector) Prebiotics and GOS (used in both kids’ products and beauty-from-within nutraceuticals) China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has imposed stricter regulations on infant formulas, creating urgency for high-purity lactose imports and joint ventures. Meanwhile, India’s excipient industry is localizing pharma lactose production to cut costs and comply with USFDA audits. Korea and Japan are also pushing toward functional GOS applications, including gut-brain health and cognitive wellness in older adults. One trend to watch: localized production in Southeast Asia to reduce import dependency and meet halal-certified standards. Latin America, Middle East & Africa (LAMEA) This region remains underdeveloped in value-added lactose applications — but not without promise. Brazil is investing in pharmaceutical excipient capacity, with growing demand for spray-dried and micronized lactose. Mexico continues to import pharma-grade lactose, mostly for generics and contract manufacturing. Gulf countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are funding pediatric nutrition programs, opening the door for infant-grade lactose and GOS products. Sub-Saharan Africa sees lactose primarily in animal feed and basic food processing, but NGO-funded pediatric nutrition programs are beginning to explore lactose-based therapeutic foods. The challenge here is dual: cost sensitivity and infrastructure gaps. But that also creates opportunity for portable production systems and ingredient concentrates. Regional Summary North America = steady innovation in pharma and wellness foods Europe = regulatory gold standard, low-volume/high-value Asia Pacific = fastest-growing, localization + functional demand LAMEA = emerging opportunity, needs investment and technical transfer What’s clear? The global lactose map is shifting from bulk trade to localized, purpose-driven production hubs. And that shift is favoring companies that can tailor output — not just scale it. End-User Dynamics And Use Case In the lactose and derivatives market , buyers aren’t just choosing ingredients — they’re choosing certainty. Whether it’s a drug manufacturer demanding micronized lactose for an inhaler or a nutrition brand adding GOS to a toddler formula, the priorities vary. That’s why understanding the end-user landscape is key — because the same ingredient has very different expectations depending on who’s using it, where, and why. Pharmaceutical Manufacturers This is one of the most exacting customer segments. For pharma companies, lactose is: A critical excipient in tablets, capsules, and inhalation powders Required to meet GMP, ICH Q7, and pharmacopoeial standards Often part of combination therapy formulations with strict stability demands Large pharma companies often source lactose through long-term contracts with validated suppliers , and smaller players rely on CDMOs to ensure compliance. What they value most isn’t cost — it’s consistency. One impurity spike, and an entire batch of drugs could be lost. Infant Formula and Pediatric Nutrition Brands Here, lactose serves a dual purpose: As a natural carbohydrate source mimicking human milk As a carrier or filler for added micronutrients or prebiotics GOS and lactose blends are key ingredients in premium infant formulas across Asia and Europe. These brands often require: Traceability to dairy origin Specific solubility and sweetness profiles Certifications for halal, kosher, and infant-grade purity Formulation teams in this space are now pushing for heat-stable lactose and blends with low Maillard browning potential — essential for processing sensitive vitamins and probiotics. Nutraceutical and Functional Food Companies This segment is exploding with innovation. Brands here use derivatives like: GOS – for prebiotic claims in gut health supplements Lactulose – in digestive tonics and stool-softening formulations Lactitol – as a sweetener for diabetic-friendly snacks Unlike pharma, these buyers aren’t always focused on extreme purity — but they care deeply about label claims, solubility, and consumer perception. Packaging “lactose-derived prebiotics” next to collagen peptides or plant fibers has become a common trend. What’s emerging here is a hybrid demand: part science, part marketing, all driven by perceived wellness value. Food and Beverage Manufacturers These buyers sit at both ends of the market: High-volume dairy processors using bulk lactose as a filler, browning agent, or milk standardizer Premium snack and bakery brands using lactitol for sugar reduction or functional attributes Many are now experimenting with enzyme-treated lactose blends that reduce lactose intolerance issues while maintaining mouthfeel and texture. Use is still mostly functional here — but clean-label and allergen-conscious sourcing is becoming more important. Animal Nutrition Producers In piglet and calf feed, lactose serves as a digestible energy source to support early growth. Derivatives like whey permeate and low-ash lactose blends are gaining popularity due to improved gut health, weaning success rates, and feed efficiency. What matters to this segment? Cost, solubility, and feed conversion ratios. Volume over finesse. But make no mistake — animal nutrition is often the entry market for new processing facilities before they scale into pharma or nutrition. Use Case Highlight A multinational drug developer was formulating a fixed-dose combination therapy for COPD that required dry powder inhalation. Early formulations using standard lactose led to poor flowability and inconsistent dosing. They partnered with a European excipient firm to trial a micronized, spray-dried lactose with controlled particle size distribution and tight residual moisture limits. After six months of stability testing and pilot runs, the final formulation passed bioequivalence trials and moved into commercial production. The outcome? Improved dose uniformity Faster device priming Zero batch rejections in the first full year This wasn’t just an excipient swap. It was a formulation breakthrough — made possible by lactose tailored for inhalation delivery. Bottom line : The market isn’t shaped by lactose itself — it’s shaped by what each user needs lactose to do . And that’s why winning suppliers aren’t just selling volume. They’re delivering performance, backed by science, service, and segmentation. Recent Developments + Opportunities & Restraints Recent Developments (Last 2 Years) DFE Pharma expanded its excipient product line in 2024 with a new grade of inhalation-optimized lactose , developed in collaboration with European device manufacturers to improve DPI performance under humid conditions. Kerry Group announced a partnership in 2023 with a South Korean infant formula brand to supply high-purity GOS , aimed at boosting digestive health in toddlers. Armor Pharma completed a facility upgrade in 2024 to manufacture low-endotoxin lactose excipients , meeting new demand from biologics and cell therapy applications. Ingredia introduced a ready-to-use liquid lactulose concentrate in 2023 targeting functional food and over-the-counter laxative markets in Latin America. Meggle Group opened a tech center in Eastern Europe in 2024 to develop custom lactose blends for regional pharma and nutrition brands. Opportunities Asia-Pacific localization : Rising regulatory pressure in China and India is fueling demand for regionally sourced pharma and infant-grade lactose , opening the door for joint ventures and localized processing hubs. Prebiotic boom : Consumer awareness around gut health is surging — GOS and lactulose are finding new shelf space in adult wellness , not just pediatric nutrition. Lactose in biologics : As biologics and specialty injectables grow, demand is emerging for low-endotoxin, injectable-grade lactose — a niche but high-value opportunity. Restraints Raw material volatility : Fluctuations in global whey production impact lactose supply and pricing, especially for manufacturers relying on commodity-grade inputs. Complex compliance burden : Meeting diverse regulatory requirements (e.g., EMA vs. USFDA vs. CFDA) is costly, especially for mid-size firms trying to scale cross-border sales. To be honest, this market isn’t held back by science — it’s held back by complexity. The opportunity is there. The execution is where most stumble 7.1. Report Coverage Table Report Attribute Details Forecast Period 2025 – 2030 Market Size Value in 2024 USD 7.9 Billion Revenue Forecast in 2030 USD 11.1 Billion Overall Growth Rate CAGR of 5.8% (2025 – 2030) Base Year for Estimation 2024 Historical Data 2019 – 2023 Unit USD Million, CAGR (2025 – 2030) Segmentation By Product Type, By Application, By End User, By Geography By Product Type Crystalline Lactose, Lactulose, GOS, Lactitol, Spray-Dried Lactose, Pharmaceutical-Grade Lactose By Application Food & Beverage, Pharmaceuticals, Infant Nutrition, Animal Feed By End User Food & Beverage Manufacturers, Pharmaceutical Companies, Nutraceutical Brands, Animal Nutrition Producers By Region North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa Country Scope U.S., UK, Germany, China, India, Japan, Brazil, UAE, South Korea, Mexico Market Drivers - Rising pharmaceutical demand for excipient-grade lactose - Expanding infant nutrition sector in Asia - Growing interest in prebiotics for gut health Customization Option Available upon request Frequently Asked Question About This Report Q1: How big is the lactose and derivatives market? A1: The global lactose and derivatives market is valued at USD 7.9 billion in 2024. Q2: What is the expected CAGR for the lactose and derivatives market from 2025 to 2030? A2: The market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 5.8% during the forecast period. Q3: Who are the key players in the lactose and derivatives space? A3: Leading companies include Kerry Group, DFE Pharma, Armor Pharma, Meggle Group, and Ingredia. Q4: Which region is growing fastest in this market? A4: Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region, driven by rising demand for infant nutrition and pharmaceutical excipients. Q5: What’s driving demand for lactose derivatives? A5: Growth is fueled by rising pharmaceutical use, increased demand for prebiotics like GOS, and tighter quality standards in infant formula. Executive Summary Market Overview Market Attractiveness by Product Type, Application, End User, and Region Strategic Insights from Key Executives (CXO Perspective) Historical Market Size and Future Projections (2019–2030) Summary of Market Segmentation by Product Type, Application, End User, and Region Market Share Analysis Leading Players by Revenue and Market Share Market Share Analysis by Product Type, Application, and End User Investment Opportunities in the Lactose and Derivatives Market Key Developments and Innovations Mergers, Acquisitions, and Strategic Partnerships High-Growth Segments for Investment Market Introduction Definition and Scope of the Study Market Structure and Key Findings Overview of Top Investment Pockets Research Methodology Research Process Overview Primary and Secondary Research Approaches Market Size Estimation and Forecasting Techniques Market Dynamics Key Market Drivers Challenges and Restraints Impacting Growth Emerging Opportunities for Stakeholders Regulatory and Compliance Landscape Impact of Market Trends and Product Development Global Lactose and Derivatives Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Product Type: Crystalline Lactose Lactulose Galactooligosaccharides (GOS) Lactitol Pharmaceutical-Grade Lactose Spray-Dried Lactose Market Analysis by Application: Food & Beverage Pharmaceuticals Infant Nutrition Animal Feed Market Analysis by End User: Food & Beverage Manufacturers Pharmaceutical Companies Nutraceutical Brands Animal Nutrition Producers Market Analysis by Region: North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa North America Lactose and Derivatives Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Forecast Market Size and Volume (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Product Type, Application, and End User Country-Level Breakdown: United States Canada Mexico Europe Lactose and Derivatives Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Forecast Market Size and Volume (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Product Type, Application, and End User Country-Level Breakdown: Germany United Kingdom France Italy Spain Rest of Europe Asia-Pacific Lactose and Derivatives Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Forecast Market Size and Volume (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Product Type, Application, and End User Country-Level Breakdown: China India Japan South Korea Rest of Asia-Pacific Latin America Lactose and Derivatives Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Forecast Market Size and Volume (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Product Type, Application, and End User Country-Level Breakdown: Brazil Argentina Rest of Latin America Middle East & Africa Lactose and Derivatives Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Forecast Market Size and Volume (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Product Type, Application, and End User Country-Level Breakdown: GCC Countries South Africa Rest of Middle East & Africa Key Players and Competitive Analysis Kerry Group – Focus on Nutritional Applications DFE Pharma – Pharma-Grade Excellence Armor Pharma – Specialty in Infant and Pharma Segments Meggle Group – Established Regional Footprint Ingredia – Prebiotic and Functional Focus Strategic Overview and Product Benchmarking Regional Presence and Capacity Expansion Strategies Appendix Abbreviations and Terminologies Used in the Report References and Data Sources List of Tables Market Size by Product Type, Application, End User, and Region (2024–2030) Regional Market Breakdown by Product Type and Application (2024–2030) List of Figures Market Dynamics: Drivers, Restraints, Opportunities, and Challenges Regional Market Snapshot for Key Regions Competitive Landscape and Market Share Analysis Growth Strategies Adopted by Key Players Market Share by Product Type, Application, and End User (2024 vs. 2030)