Report Description Table of Contents Introduction And Strategic Context The Global PV Ribbon Market is estimated to be worth USD 4.2 billion in 2024 , and is projected to reach USD 6.8 billion by 2030 , expanding at a CAGR of 8.3% during the forecast period (2024–2030). This market represents a critical enabler in the solar value chain, supplying the conductive ribbons that interconnect solar cells and enable efficient current flow in photovoltaic (PV) modules. PV ribbons may appear simple compared to solar wafers or inverters, but they are strategically important. They directly influence electrical efficiency, long-term module reliability, and manufacturing throughput. With solar installations scaling rapidly across Asia, Europe, and North America, ribbons are no longer treated as low-value commodities but as performance materials where conductivity, durability, and cost all matter. Three macro forces define this market’s importance in 2024–2030: Energy Transition Acceleration: Governments are tightening renewable energy targets, pushing PV capacity additions to record highs. Every gigawatt of solar installed translates into hundreds of kilometers of PV ribbon demand. Material Science Evolution: The move toward thinner wafers and higher cell efficiencies requires ribbons with improved solderability , low resistivity, and mechanical flexibility. This is spurring innovations in alloys, surface coatings, and flat vs. round wire geometries. Cost & Supply Chain Pressure: Solar remains a cost-sensitive industry. Ribbon manufacturers must balance performance improvements with competitive pricing, often tied to volatile copper and silver costs. Stakeholders here include OEMs producing ribbons, solar cell and module manufacturers , metals suppliers , governments funding solar expansion , and investors betting on solar hardware resilience . What makes this market strategically different is its positioning at the intersection of advanced materials and renewable energy. Unlike modules or inverters that get most of the attention, PV ribbons quietly scale in lockstep with global solar installations. In fact, every push toward higher-efficiency solar — whether TOPCon , HJT, or perovskite tandem cells — inevitably demands specialized ribbons to match. Market Segmentation And Forecast Scope The PV ribbon market is segmented across four key dimensions: Type of Ribbon , Coating/Plating , End Use , and Region . Each segment reflects how solar module designs are evolving — and how manufacturers are adjusting ribbon specs to match new cell technologies, soldering needs, and efficiency targets. By Type of Ribbon Interconnect Ribbon: The most widely used segment, interconnect ribbons connect solar cells within a module. Demand here is closely tied to the adoption of new cell formats (e.g., half-cut, shingled, or bifacial). Busbar Ribbon: These ribbons gather current from the interconnects and carry it to the junction box. They’re thicker, often require enhanced conductivity, and are increasingly being customized per module layout. In 2024, interconnect ribbons hold over 65% of market share , but busbar ribbons are gaining traction as module designs shift toward larger wafers and multi- busbar configurations. By Coating/Plating Tin-coated Copper (TCC): Still dominant due to cost-effectiveness, ease of soldering, and reliable performance. Silver-coated Copper: Niche but growing, especially in high-efficiency modules such as HJT and TOPCon , where conductivity losses are unacceptable. Other Variants (e.g., Tin-Lead, Bare Copper): Rare and declining due to environmental regulations and performance trade-offs. Silver-coated variants are expanding fast — not in volume, but in influence. They’re typically used in premium, high-output panels for commercial or utility-scale solar farms where performance over 25 years outweighs initial cost. By End Use Monocrystalline PV Modules: The dominant application, particularly as PERC, TOPCon , and HJT architectures become standard. Polycrystalline PV Modules: Shrinking in share but still relevant in cost-sensitive markets and older infrastructure. Thin-Film Modules: Use less ribbon overall but may require specialty ribbons for flexible applications. The shift to n-type cells is a game changer here. Ribbons now need to handle lower temperatures and different soldering profiles — forcing suppliers to adapt their formulations quickly. By Region Asia Pacific: Largest and fastest-growing market, led by China, India, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. Europe: Driven by grid parity economics and green energy incentives. OEMs here often demand low-lead or RoHS-compliant ribbons. North America: Strong utility-scale demand, with U.S. manufacturers increasingly sourcing domestically due to trade tensions. LAMEA (Latin America, Middle East, Africa ): Emerging market with rising solar installations, especially in UAE, South Africa, Brazil, and Chile. Forecast Scope The report covers revenue forecasts for 2024–2030 , segmented by ribbon type, coating type, end-use application, and region. We focus not just on volume growth but on how ribbon designs, alloys, and coatings are adapting to evolving module technology. For instance, the rise of HJT cells is expected to triple the demand for silver-coated flat ribbons by 2027. This isn’t a uniform market. Some segments are mature and price-sensitive. Others — like those serving high-efficiency modules — are in a phase of premiumization and fast-paced innovation. Market Trends And Innovation Landscape Innovation in the PV ribbon market isn’t flashy, but it’s relentless. These small metal strips are under constant pressure to evolve — not just to improve conductivity, but to meet the demands of thinner wafers, evolving soldering techniques, and ever-rising solar module efficiency expectations. What was once a commodity segment is now a quietly competitive field driven by materials science, microengineering , and cost-performance balancing . Flat Wire and Round Wire Designs The industry is steadily shifting from traditional flat ribbon to round and oval-shaped wires — particularly in advanced cell technologies like heterojunction (HJT) and TOPCon . These shapes reduce light reflection, improve module aesthetics, and enhance current collection. Several OEMs are now branding round ribbons as a module efficiency booster, claiming up to 1% gain in power output — a big deal at utility scale. Shift Toward Low-Temperature Soldering As solar cell structures get more delicate (especially in n-type cells and bifacial modules), there’s growing demand for low-temperature soldering . This requires ribbons with different alloy compositions and better flux behavior. Manufacturers are actively tweaking tin-silver, tin-bismuth, and proprietary coating blends to reduce thermal stress during lamination. Rise of Silver-Coated Ribbons Though costlier, silver-coated copper ribbons are gaining popularity in HJT modules , where every micro-ohm matters. These ribbons offer superior conductivity and corrosion resistance — two things high-efficiency, long-life modules absolutely need. That said, pricing is volatile and adoption is mostly limited to premium modules for commercial and utility projects. One Tier 1 solar module maker in Korea now mandates silver-plated ribbon for all exports above 550W rating. Advanced Surface Treatments To improve solderability and long-term performance, vendors are investing in nano -texturing, anti-oxidation coatings, and plasma cleaning techniques . Some are even bundling ribbon with adhesives or flux coatings to simplify integration into automated tabbing and stringing lines. Automation-friendly ribbons are now a product differentiator. As module makers push for higher throughput, ribbons that reduce soldering cycle time — or integrate pre-fluxed coatings — are being priced at a premium. Integration with Smart Manufacturing Ribbon suppliers are increasingly offering digital traceability features , like embedded codes or color tags, for production line tracking . While niche, this reflects a broader trend: solar OEMs are demanding more supply chain transparency , especially under U.S. and EU procurement laws. Collaborations and Material Trials Several R&D alliances have emerged in the last two years between ribbon OEMs, silver paste suppliers, and PV cell labs to co-develop formulations that optimize the ribbon-paste interface . This matters because module degradation often starts at these joints — and innovation at that micro-level can extend module lifespans significantly. Expect early commercial pilots of low-silver ribbons and dual-layer coatings to emerge by late 2025. Bottom line? The PV ribbon market is no longer about “good enough.” It’s about building to spec — often to nanometer-level tolerances — and tuning designs for every new cell architecture that hits the market. The players that win will be those that can deliver incremental performance gains without triggering price hikes . Competitive Intelligence And Benchmarking Competition in the PV ribbon market used to revolve around who could deliver at scale, on time, and at the lowest price. That’s changed. Today, leading players are winning by aligning with solar cell roadmaps, investing in R&D, and offering value beyond the metal strip — including technical support, co-engineering services, and automation-ready products. Here’s how the top players stack up. Ulbrich Solar Technologies Based in the U.S., Ulbrich is a global front-runner in precision-rolled PV ribbon , with manufacturing and service centers across North America and Europe. Their edge lies in technical depth. Ulbrich often works directly with Tier 1 solar module makers to co-design ribbon profiles for HJT and IBC modules , including custom silver-coated and round wire solutions . They’re also early adopters of sustainability practices, offering low-lead and recyclable packaging formats that appeal to European buyers. In the HJT space, Ulbrich is the go-to partner for many high-performance module startups. Hitachi Cable A veteran in the electrical materials industry, Hitachi Cable delivers high-conductivity ribbon optimized for TOPCon and PERC cells. Their strength lies in metallurgy — they’ve developed tin-silver alloy coatings that balance solderability with cost. Hitachi also benefits from vertical integration with its parent company, offering consistent quality and tighter control over copper procurement — crucial in volatile commodity markets. Their client base spans Japan, Southeast Asia, and selective U.S. projects. Bruker- Spaleck Part of the Bruker Group, Bruker- Spaleck brings German engineering precision to the ribbon market. They specialize in super-thin and ultra-flat interconnect ribbons — essential for half-cut and multi- busbar modules. They’ve invested heavily in roll-to-roll coating technology and focus on partnerships with European module manufacturers where RoHS compliance and consistency matter more than cost-cutting. Sveck Photovoltaic New Material (China) Sveck is one of China’s largest ribbon suppliers and a key vendor to major domestic module giants like JA Solar and Trina. Their advantage is scale. They deliver vast volumes of standard tin-coated copper ribbon , and are rapidly expanding capacity for silver-coated variants . Sveck’s focus is mainly on cost competitiveness, but they’re catching up on tech. In 2024, they partnered with a leading Chinese research institute to co-develop dual-solder-layer ribbon for flexible modules — a clear signal that innovation isn’t just a Western game. Luvata (Finland) Known for specialty metals, Luvata operates in the premium segment of PV ribbons — with a strong footprint in silver-based and low-resistance alloys . They serve niche high-performance applications, including aerospace-grade solar systems and off-grid modules where durability is paramount. Their ribbons are often priced above market average, but they cater to OEMs looking for 25+ year module lifespans . Competitive Dynamics at a Glance Ulbrich and Hitachi lead on technical collaboration and diversified coating options. Sveck and Chinese peers dominate in volume and price sensitivity. Bruker- Spaleck and Luvata own niche spaces where performance and traceability matter most. Smaller players often focus on single-region supply (e.g., India or MENA) but struggle to meet evolving ribbon specs tied to next-gen cell types. What sets leaders apart isn’t just production capability — it’s the ability to keep up with the blistering pace of solar cell innovation. Ribbons that worked five years ago are already obsolete. Winning vendors are those who co-evolve with their customers, not just ship orders. Regional Landscape And Adoption Outlook The PV ribbon market moves in tandem with regional solar module production and installation trends — but with added complexity. Ribbon specs often differ by region, driven by local module design preferences , regulatory environments , soldering methods , and even aesthetic considerations . Let’s break down what’s happening by region. Asia Pacific This is the undisputed hub of both ribbon manufacturing and solar deployment. China dominates production, with high-volume demand for tin-coated interconnect ribbons feeding into the world’s largest solar module factories. That said, cell technology in China is shifting fast. TOPCon and HJT are seeing sharp uptakes, especially from giants like LONGi , JA Solar , and JinkoSolar . This is pushing local ribbon suppliers to invest in silver-coated options and round wire production . In India, demand is strong but cost-sensitive. Domestic module players lean toward standard PERC cells and source mostly low-cost copper-tin ribbons . However, with the Indian government pushing for domestic PV manufacturing , ribbon production is expected to shift more in-house over the next 3–5 years. South Korea and Japan , while smaller in volume, are notable for their focus on high-efficiency rooftop and commercial modules. Ribbon demand here tends to skew toward advanced coatings and high-reliability alloys . Europe European demand for PV ribbon isn’t just about volume — it’s about compliance and quality . OEMs here prefer RoHS-compliant , low-lead , and recyclable materials . There’s also a strong push for traceability , especially as EU regulations on carbon footprint and materials sourcing tighten. Many high-end module makers in Germany, Italy, and France now specify silver-coated or multi-layer ribbons to pair with HJT or bifacial cells. Europe doesn’t have many large-scale ribbon manufacturers, so it relies on imports — often from Finland ( Luvata ) , Germany (Bruker- Spaleck ) , or selected Asian suppliers that meet EU standards. North America The U.S. market is growing again, thanks in part to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its incentives for domestic solar manufacturing. As new module factories pop up across Texas, Ohio, and Georgia , ribbon suppliers like Ulbrich are expanding U.S.-based capacity to meet local content rules. Unlike Asia, North American module makers are more conservative in shifting to new cell technologies. PERC is still dominant , but TOPCon and HJT lines are being piloted — which means silver-coated ribbons will gain share here slowly, starting in 2025. Canada remains a modest market but values durability and cold-weather performance , influencing demand for high-resistance, corrosion-proof ribbon coatings. LAMEA Latin America , especially Brazil, Mexico, and Chile , is experiencing a solar boom — mostly utility scale, price-driven projects. PV ribbon demand here is tied to module imports, but as local assembly ramps up, ribbon suppliers are scouting for in-region partnerships. The Middle East , especially UAE and Saudi Arabia , is pushing for high-efficiency modules that can withstand extreme heat. That opens the door for specialty coatings and thermally stable ribbon alloys . Africa is still early in development. Ribbon demand is mostly indirect — tied to Chinese-made modules. However, localized assembly initiatives in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa may create small but strategic openings for regional ribbon supply. Summary of Regional Dynamics Region Key Driver Ribbon Demand Trend Asia Pacific Scale + Tech Transition ( TOPCon , HJT) Moving toward silver-coated, round ribbons Europe Regulation + Quality High demand for RoHS-compliant, traceable ribbons North America IRA + Domestic Manufacturing Boost in local sourcing, slow shift to HJT LAMEA Utility Scale Expansion Entry-level ribbons now, premium later The ribbon market isn’t just following solar trends — it’s quietly shaping them. Ribbon selection directly impacts module reliability, efficiency, and cost-per-watt. And across regions, those factors look very different. End-User Dynamics And Use Case Unlike most components in the solar value chain, PV ribbons are not purchased directly by installers or end customers . Instead, they’re specced , sourced, and integrated deep inside the module manufacturing process. But even within that space, the priorities — and procurement behaviors — vary widely depending on the type of module maker , scale of operations , and technology platform in use . Let’s break down the key end-user categories and how they engage with ribbon suppliers: Module Manufacturers These are the global solar giants — companies like LONGi , Trina, JA Solar, JinkoSolar , and Canadian Solar . They produce at massive scale, often integrating wafer, cell, and module production under one roof. Their ribbon needs are precise: Performance-matched ribbons for specific cell architectures (PERC, TOPCon , HJT) High-speed automation compatibility Custom alloy or geometry specs based on internal R&D Procurement here is often backed by long-term vendor relationships. These firms demand not just product delivery, but joint development agreements (JDAs ) with ribbon suppliers to co-engineer next-gen interconnects. One global OEM recently worked with its ribbon partner to fine-tune the solder layer thickness — shaving off 0.3 grams of material per module, saving over $1 million annually at full production scale. Regional Module Makers This group includes companies operating at smaller scale — often regional players in India, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, or the Middle East. Their ribbon sourcing strategies are different: More price-sensitive Limited in-house R&D — they often rely on supplier recommendations Use standard specs (tin-coated copper, flat profile) for compatibility That said, many are now adopting TOPCon lines and beginning to explore silver-coated or low-temperature ribbons . For these firms, ribbon choice is tied more to supply chain stability and technical support access than to marginal performance gains. Specialty Module Makers These are niche players that build solar panels for building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) , flexible modules , aerospace , or military applications. Their ribbon needs are highly customized: Ultra-thin or flexible ribbons Heat-stable coatings for harsh environments Precise soldering compatibility with exotic cell materials These users may only produce a few megawatts per year — but they demand tight specs and high reliability. Ribbon suppliers that can deliver engineering support win the business. Use Case Spotlight A European BIPV manufacturer designing solar facades for high-rise buildings faced challenges integrating ultra-thin HJT cells without visible wiring. Traditional flat ribbons caused microcracks and left visible traces behind glass. They partnered with a ribbon supplier to develop a low-gloss, silver-coated round ribbon , ultra-narrow and optimized for laser soldering. The result? Modules that were structurally sound, visually discreet, and passed the EU’s strict façade performance codes. This wasn’t just about aesthetics — it unlocked a new use case for solar integration in urban architecture. Bottom Line End-user dynamics in the PV ribbon market aren’t about who buys more — they’re about how much customization and support they require . High-volume OEMs want efficiency. Specialty players want precision. But all expect ribbons that match their technology roadmap and won’t derail their automation lines. And as solar tech keeps evolving, ribbon vendors that stay close to end users — not just on price, but on process — will keep winning contracts. Recent Developments + Opportunities & Restraints Recent Developments (Last 2 Years) Ulbrich Solar Introduces Customizable Silver-Coated Ribbon Series (2024): Ulbrich launched a new silver-coated copper ribbon line optimized for HJT and TOPCon cells , with variable solder thickness options for OEM customization. The company claims improved conductivity with a 15% reduction in solder-related waste — a timely response to rising silver costs. Hitachi Cable Partners with Southeast Asian OEM to Localize Production (2023): In a move to reduce delivery lead times, Hitachi Cable established a joint venture facility in Vietnam aimed at producing busbar ribbons for regional module makers. This helps mitigate risks tied to shipping delays and material sourcing volatility. Bruker- Spaleck Develops Nano-Textured Ribbon Surface for Low-Temp Soldering (2024): Bruker announced a new ribbon surface finish technology that enhances soldering at lower temperatures — especially critical for fragile n-type cells. Early pilot programs with European module makers showed a 20% reduction in delamination incidents. Sveck Launches Dual-Coated Ribbons for Flexible Modules (2024): Chinese supplier Sveck rolled out a dual-layer ribbon coating that supports high-flexibility applications , targeting the emerging segment of bendable or rollable solar modules . The product was showcased at the SNEC PV Power Expo in Shanghai. Luvata Pilots Traceable Ribbon for EU Compliance (2023): In response to EU regulations on materials sourcing, Luvata began offering QR-code traceable ribbons , allowing OEMs to track the origin and batch of ribbon alloys — a step toward full solar module transparency in ESG reporting. Opportunities High-Efficiency Module Demand (HJT, TOPCon , IBC): As the industry shifts toward higher-efficiency cells, there’s growing demand for low-resistance, silver-coated, and shape-optimized ribbons . This creates a window for premium suppliers to differentiate on performance rather than just price. Regional Manufacturing Incentives: From the IRA in the U.S. to India’s PLI scheme , countries are incentivizing domestic solar manufacturing — including ribbons. Suppliers that localize production can win contracts under national sourcing mandates. Sustainable Ribbon Materials and ESG Compliance: PV ribbon makers offering lead-free, recyclable , or traceable coatings can gain favor with European and North American buyers facing stricter ESG rules. These buyers increasingly favor ribbons aligned with low-carbon manufacturing footprints. Restraints Silver Price Volatility: Many next-gen ribbon designs depend on silver coatings — which exposes manufacturers to commodity price swings. Sudden price spikes can erode margins or force mid-tier OEMs to revert to cheaper, lower-performance alternatives. Limited Standardization Across Cell Types: Each solar cell architecture (PERC, HJT, TOPCon , IBC) may require slightly different ribbon specs. This lack of uniformity increases complexity in manufacturing and inventory management for ribbon producers. 7.1. Report Coverage Table Report Attribute Details Forecast Period 2024 – 2030 Market Size Value in 2024 USD 4.2 Billion Revenue Forecast in 2030 USD 6.8 Billion Overall Growth Rate CAGR of 8.3% (2024 – 2030) Base Year for Estimation 2024 Historical Data 2019 – 2023 Unit USD Million, CAGR (2024 – 2030) Segmentation By Ribbon Type, By Coating Type, By End Use, By Region By Ribbon Type Interconnect Ribbon, Busbar Ribbon By Coating Type Tin-Coated Copper, Silver-Coated Copper, Others By End Use Monocrystalline Modules, Polycrystalline Modules, Thin-Film Modules By Region North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa Country Scope U.S., Germany, China, India, Japan, Brazil, UAE, South Africa Market Drivers - Surge in high-efficiency module production - Expansion of domestic PV manufacturing hubs - Innovation in ribbon geometry and coating materials Customization Option Available upon request Frequently Asked Question About This Report Q1: How big is the PV ribbon market? A1: The global PV ribbon market is valued at USD 4.2 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 6.8 billion by 2030. Q2: What is the CAGR for the PV ribbon market during the forecast period? A2: The market is growing at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2024 to 2030. Q3: Who are the major players in the PV ribbon market? A3: Leading vendors include Ulbrich Solar, Hitachi Cable, Bruker-Spaleck, Sveck, and Luvata. Q4: Which region dominates the PV ribbon market? A4: Asia Pacific leads in volume and innovation, driven by cell technology shifts and manufacturing scale. Q5: What factors are driving growth in the PV ribbon market? A5: Growth is fueled by the rise of high-efficiency solar modules, localization of PV manufacturing, and advances in ribbon coatings and geometries. Table of Contents – Global PV Ribbon Market Report (2024–2030) Executive Summary Market Overview Market Attractiveness by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use, and Region Strategic Insights from Key Executives (CXO Perspective) Historical Market Size and Future Projections (2019–2030) Summary of Market Segmentation by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use, and Region Market Share Analysis Leading Players by Revenue and Market Share Market Share Analysis by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, and End Use Investment Opportunities in the PV Ribbon Market Key Developments and Innovations Mergers, Acquisitions, and Strategic Partnerships High-Growth Segments for Investment Market Introduction Definition and Scope of the Study Market Structure and Key Findings Overview of Top Investment Pockets Research Methodology Research Process Overview Primary and Secondary Research Approaches Market Size Estimation and Forecasting Techniques Market Dynamics Key Market Drivers Challenges and Restraints Impacting Growth Emerging Opportunities for Stakeholders Impact of Regulatory and Technological Factors Environmental and Sustainability Considerations Global PV Ribbon Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Type of Ribbon: Interconnect Ribbon Busbar Ribbon Market Analysis by Coating/Plating: Tin-Coated Copper (TCC) Silver-Coated Copper Other Variants (Tin-Lead, Bare Copper) Market Analysis by End Use: Monocrystalline PV Modules Polycrystalline PV Modules Thin-Film Modules Market Analysis by Region: Asia Pacific Europe North America Latin America Middle East & Africa Regional Market Analysis North America PV Ribbon Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use Country-Level Breakdown United States Canada Mexico Europe PV Ribbon Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use Country-Level Breakdown Germany France Italy Spain Rest of Europe Asia Pacific PV Ribbon Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use Country-Level Breakdown China India Japan South Korea Rest of Asia Pacific Latin America PV Ribbon Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use Country-Level Breakdown Brazil Mexico Chile Rest of Latin America Middle East & Africa PV Ribbon Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use Country-Level Breakdown United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia South Africa Rest of Middle East & Africa Competitive Intelligence and Benchmarking Leading Key Players: Ulbrich Solar Technologies Hitachi Cable Bruker-Spaleck Sveck Photovoltaic New Material Luvata Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights Benchmarking Based on Product Offerings, Technology, and Innovation Appendix Abbreviations and Terminologies Used in the Report References and Sources List of Tables Market Size by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, End Use, and Region (2024–2030) Regional Market Breakdown by Segment Type (2024–2030) List of Figures Market Drivers, Challenges, and Opportunities Regional Market Snapshot Competitive Landscape by Market Share Growth Strategies Adopted by Key Players Market Share by Type of Ribbon, Coating/Plating, and End Use (2024 vs. 2030)